This autumn, the Six Nations champions and Grand Slam winners will be looking to make amends for their 3-0 defeat in Australia earlier this year. The series whitewash down-under came as a surprise to many, not least to the Welsh team themselves. On paper, the Welsh team is formidable, and represents arguably the northern hemisphere’s best chance of getting one over on the touring teams, even without their Kiwi coach Warren Gatland at the helm.
Under the stewardship of caretaker boss Rob Howley, Wales were close in each of their three games against the Wallabies and twice saw victory snatched from them in the final minutes. That the Welsh were unhappy with this showing is a tribute to the advances they have made in recent years; the tag of ‘gallant losers’ is no longer an acceptable one. After the final test, a nail-biting 20-19 defeat in Sydney, Howley claimed that his side did not want any ‘taps on the back’ as they were ‘better than that’; with Argentina, Samoa, New Zealand and Australia to face in four consecutive weeks, they will certainly need to be.
The reality, however, is that Wales possess a truly awful record against the southern hemisphere sides, and not just the big three. Wales have not beaten New Zealand since 1953 and recorded only three wins over them before that and have lost to Australia in their last seven matches. As well as this, Wales lost to Fiji as recently as 2010 and only managed an unconvincing 17-10 win over Samoa in the group stage of the 2011 World Cup. Despite this, with the backing of a capacity crowd in the Millennium Stadium, the Welsh will believe they can beat anyone, and justifiably.
Australia were there for the taking in the summer and Wales should have come away with at least one victory. On two occasions they worked themselves into winning positions only to allow Australia the chance to edge both games by giving away late penalties. Essentially, Wales were punished in Australia for a chronic lack of discipline and inability to see out the game from winning positions. Despite the possibility of being without James Hook, Mike Phillips and Gethin Jenkins against the Aussies – due to the continued conflict with their French domestic clubs – with a little more composure and the eradication of silly errors in dangerous areas, Wales have the quality to emerge victorious in Cardiff on the 1st of December.
The potency of the Welsh backline is obvious and scoring tries should not be a problem for them, as it may well be for the likes of Scotland and England. In George North, Alex Cuthbert and Leigh Halfpenny, they have arguably the best back three in the northern hemisphere. Add to this a pack that, though injury depleted, (Adam Jones and Six Nations man of the tournament Dan Lydiate have been ruled out for the series, whilst Ryan Jones is a doubt for the opening fixture against Argentina) provides a solid scrum, an ultra-mobile back-row and one of the best opensides in the world in Sam Warburton, and the side looks dangerous.
Wales should be able to overcome Argentina, who are dangerous but still developing, on the 10th of November, and should have no problem dealing with the physical power of Samoa. Whilst New Zealand may prove to be a game too far for the men in red, a win against Australia is a must if the autumn is to be dubbed a success. Wales should feel confident they can win every game they play with their current side, particularly in Cardiff, and are clearly the northern hemisphere’s best bet to succeed in the coming weeks.
Sam Davies
exeposedev 