In the first article for her column, Alethea Osborne provides a critical look at Syria today, still in the midst of conflict.
In recent weeks, key diplomatic events have taken place in the development of Syria’s conflict. Bashar Al-Assad presented his first speech in seven months last Sunday at the Opera house in Damascus to a very carefully chosen and thus passionately supportive audience. In it he described the opposition groups as followers of Al-Qaida, along with being “enemies of God and puppets of the West”. The Syrian opposition groups perceived the speech, particularly Assad’s rejection of peace talks, as a renewed declaration of war.
The UN and many foreign powers, including the UK have acknowledged the speech as discouraging and simply another attempt to cling to power; the USA described it as “detached from reality”. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was “disappointed that the speech by President Bashar al-Assad on 6 January does not contribute to a solution that could end the terrible suffering of the Syrian people”. While the UN spokesman Martin Nesirky said of the president’s speech, “the speech rejected the most important element of the Geneva Communique of 30 June 2012, namely a political transition and the establishment of a transitional governing body with full executive powers that would include representatives of all Syrians.”
It is generally understood that there will be no organised peace process accepted by the opposition groups until Assad agrees to step down. The head of the opposition group, Hassan Abdel Azim, put forward the first condition of talks with the regime during a news conference in Damascus: he declared “we will not take part in a national dialogue before violence stops”.
He further stipulated that any dialogue be preceded by the release of prisoners, a guarantee to ensure humanitarian aid is delivered to areas hit by the violence and the publication of a statement on the fate of missing Syrians. “Any negotiation – not just a national dialogue – must be held under the aegis of the UN-Arab League envoy,” he said, before stressing that “there won’t be direct negotiations or dialogue with the regime”.
The UK government announced on Tuesday that a conference would be held on Wednesday and Thursday, hosted outside London by the British Foreign Office, to discuss a plan for Syria in the period after the ‘inevitable’ fall of Assad. Experts from around the world including academics in post-conflict stabilisation and representatives from the Syrain opposition groups attended.
The organisation of the conference is indicative of the rising concern regarding the potential situation in post-Assad Syria as experts fear there could be more bloodshed due to religious and sectarian rivalries which could further destabilise not just Syria but other countries in the already volatile region
The conflict, in which it is estimated at least 60,000 people have died, is swiftly turning into a humanitarian crisis with the UN estimating that the number of registered refugees has risen by 100,000 in the last month to number nearly 600,000. The UN’s food programme has announced this week that fighting in Syria has made it unable to reach a million people in need within the war zones. It estimates that there are 2.5 million in need, of which it can only distribute food to 1.5 million every month. The danger of working in the areas of fighting has meant the staff from the World Food Programme (WFP) have had to leave Aleppo, Homs, Tartous and Qamisly.
“Food needs are growing in Syria,” said Elisabeth Brys, a WFP spokesperson. Understandably, after nearly two years of continuous conflict it was increasingly difficult “to reach the hardest-hit places”. The WFP works with the Syrian Arab Red Crescent and a few local NGOs to help distribute the food within the country, however these efforts are increasingly limited by a ‘lack of capacity’ along with the danger of working amongst the escalating violence.
The desperation of the situation of many refugees was clearly displayed on Tuesday when refugees in the Zaatari camp in Jordan attacked aid workers in frustration after their tents were destroyed by howling winds and heavy rain. The weather across the region has made the situation for many refugees living in temporary camps inside and outside of Syria far harder with biting cold winds and constant rain. However, there is a certain mantra amongst all Syrian refugees that they will return home soon, a determined streak of hope as the conflict enters its second winter.
It is becoming increasingly accepted, even by nations such as Russia who originally supported the Assad regime, that the only way that a peace process may begin to be achieved is if Assad steps down. Despite the hazy and somewhat concerning prospect of Syria’s future post-Assad it is undeniable that the horrors of the current situation, in particular the situation for those innocent citizens, many of which are displaced, caught in the middle of the fighting, are mounting to an international humanitarian crisis.
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