President of The Freedom Society Liam Taylor and Conservative Future member Nick Best put forward the case for why UKIP’s recent surge in popularity is more than a protest vote, and in fact makes them a major force in British politics. Here are Liam’s thoughts first, followed by Nick’s.
One of the most intriguing recent developments in British politics has been the surprising rise of UKIP. But just how has this party that just 2½ years ago only polled 3%, and indeed was so minor that the current Prime Minister felt comfortable dismissing them as “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”, rocketed to 17% in recent national polls?
One obvious answer is the popularity of their leader Nigel Farage. In an age when people are getting fed up of artificial, image conscious, style-over-substance politicians who change their minds according to the whims of the latest focus group, the charismatic, straight-talking Mr Farage is a welcome breath of fresh air. The chain-smoking Farage strikes most people as a normal person, unlike the career politicians who seem so interchangeable that they could have all rolled off the same assembly line, and his German wife and bilingual children make the accusations of racism and xenophobia hard to stick.
But the reasons for UKIP’s rise run deeper than their leader’s personality; it is fundamentally an inevitable result of the disillusionment of the electorate with the main three parties over key issues, chiefly the EU and immigration. For years, hard-working people have had legitimate concerns over these issues, whether it’s concerns for their own job security or over the capability of their local hospitals and schools to deal with the extra pressures consequently put on them. But not only were their concerns ignored but they were insulted, slandered as racist or xenophobic when raised.
- Does UKIP offer a substantial difference from the main three political parties?
Photo Credit: themostinept via Compfight cc
This is all only partly why people feel so disillusioned with all of the main parties, all three just seem too out of touch with the concerns of ordinary people. The Conservatives are seen to be a posh-boy’s club, more concerned with insulting their core voters than running the country and obsessed with the fads of the Notting Hill metropolitan elite. Meanwhile, Labour are seen to be not so much the party of the working class anymore as the party of the non-working class, and just as obsessed with the latest fads of the metropolitan elite, only the one in Islington instead. As for the Lib Dem’s, the traditional party of protest, only time will tell if their voters will ever forgive them for selling out their principals in exchange for a botched AV referendum (or a “miserable little compromise” as Nick Clegg called it before the election), but at only 8% in the polls it doesn’t look promising for them. This is why UKIP is able to steal votes from all three parties, drawing the majority of its support from a mixture of traditional Thatcherite Tories, socially conservative working class Old Labourites, young libertarians and general protest voters, some of whom haven’t voted at all for quite some time.
So are UKIP just a glorified single-issue pressure group? Two years ago it wouldn’t have been unreasonable to say they were, an EU Referendum promise would have almost certainly been enough to see their limited support evaporate. But not anymore. UKIP is a completely different animal now, drawing support for a wider range of reasons. This is why Cameron’s referendum promise has failed to dent their rise in support, not to mention the fact that after his “cast iron guarantee” before the last election crumbled into a pile of rust most Eurosceptics simply don’t trust him to deliver anymore.
So are UKIP just a protest vote whose support will evaporate come election time? Yes and no. For most voters they are still just a means to an end, a way to express anger and try to scare the main parties into addressing their concerns by costing them valuable votes. But if their concerns aren’t addressed soon there is a danger to the main three parties of UKIP becoming an end in itself. So it may be largely a protest vote but that doesn’t mean that their support will disappear come election time. As Beppe Grillo, the comedian turned anti-politician politician, showed in Italy, when voters are angry enough they like to give their political leaders a good kicking.
Liam Taylor
Conservative Future Member Nick Best outlines why he thinks that, “UKIP appears to be changing the political landscape”, and moreover why this is a good thing.
UKIP are the party of the moment but will this continue and grow into further electoral success? This is impossible to answer for sure but things looks positive for Farage’s party. The party activists are highly motivated and their common sense and populist policies find favour with a large number of main party supporters and even people who haven’t voted for 20 years. UKIP appears to be changing the political landscape and I for one welcome that. The three main Westminster parties, 2 in coalition and the other in opposition, have shown themselves time and time again to be out of touch with ordinary hardworking people and have failed to represent the views of the electorate on so many issues. Nigel Farage and UKIP have emerged from this environment offering a very different message; they are straight talking and conviction politicians, something that is rare in modern politics. Whatever your view of their policies at least they actually believe in them and don’t change course just because of a focus group or bad press.
- Will UKIP be able to secure any seats in the 2015 general elections?
Photo Credit: andy linden via Compfight cc
Some question whether UKIP’s rise is just temporary and suggest that they attract protest votes. Whilst some of their voters might be looking to protest many are committed to UKIP and will not be returning to the other Westminster parties. We will have to watch the local elections, next year’s European elections and the 2015 general election to see what happens but my guess is that UKIP will continue to do well and will win many council seats, could come first in the European elections and have a good chance of getting into Parliament. That would be a real shock to the older parties and if it teaches them that representing real voters and their opinions is successful then that can only be a good thing.
The other main criticism is that they are a one man band, that without Nigel Farage they would not be as successful. This is probably partly true and I recognise UKIP need to push out their other members and spokesmen, but it is policies that matter. Besides, can ordinary voters tell you who the entire Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet are? I doubt it! Many of the attacks on UKIP can be sourced to the existing dominant parties who are very worried by the prospect of a rising UKIP. These attacks reveal that Cameron and others are scared to debate with UKIP and so have resorted to name calling and bullying tactics. Luckily, more and more people are looking at UKIP and are liking what they see. They see a party that is made up of ordinary people who have had jobs outside politics, people who are in politics to change things and not to gain power and prestige, and policies which normal people outside the political elite believe in and want to see enacted. We should not be afraid of a new party in British politics and whether you like them or not you cannot deny that they represent many people in this country and deserve a place in the major league of British politics.
Nick Best
For the case made against UKIP be sure to read This isn’t the protest vote you’re looking for: Why we should say no to UKIP. Does UKIP represent a real choice for the disillusioned voter? Or are they benefitting from a short term protest vote windfall? Give a reply below or post your comment to the Exeposé Comment Facebook Group.
exeposedev 