Following the recent Council Elections, online comment editor Dave Reynolds assesses the position of the key political parties, and their standing for the General Election in 2015.
With more than 2300 county seats up for grabs across England, recent Council Election results leave the main political parties with much to ponder, with the General Election in 2015 fast approaching. The Conservatives lost well over 300 seats across England and see their nationwide support down at about 32% in Yougov polls. This is largely down to some typical Conservative voters turning to the Nigel Farage party (aka UKIP).
Many say that the Conservatives should take UKIP seriously, but I believe that Tories currently voting for UKIP out of protest will come home to the party in time for the general election in 2015 and support for UKIP will dwindle. Farage will still be happier than he was at the 2010 Election; he will have a higher vote share and possibly a seat in parliament, as long as he doesn’t crash his plane again! Despite making small gains across England in the county council elections, Labour need to do far more to appeal to the ‘working man’ if they have any plans of governing in 2015.
The Conservatives are faced with a very difficult dilemma. Should Cameron seek a more right wing agenda and take a tougher stance on immigration, EU and law an order in an attempt to lure dissatisfied voters back from UKIP? That is what he is doing. But I believe it is the wrong way to go.
We shouldn’t be listening to UKIP. These angry Tories seeking to protest in a mid-term election will come back to the Conservatives at the general election as they will come to their senses and see that a split right will pave the way for Ed Miliband and the Labour Party to walk back into power. David Cameron needs to stick to the ‘modernising’ plan he had when first elected leader of the Conservatives in 2005. In order to win the 2015 election he needs to be wooing voters on the centre ground, not concentrating on the far right. They will come back to you, Dave!
Looking at the Labour Party, all economic indicators suggest they should be way ahead in the polls. With growth flat-lining, living standards falling and inequality in the UK at an all-time high, Ed Miliband should be preparing his victory speech for 2015. But unfortunately, he has not been brave enough to really say anything. Nobody knows what his economic plan is. While a fiscal stimulus (for example a VAT cut or an increase in government spending on infrastructure) is a credible option, he is too afraid to say it as he fears admitting to more borrowing would be political suicide. It wouldn’t even necessarily increase the budget deficit.
We’re spending so much money on welfare because unemployment is still stubbornly high, a fiscal stimulus that gets more people into work would obviously cut welfare payments as unemployment will fall and tax receipts would rise. But he’s too afraid to admit the deficit would rise in the short run. I can’t imagine that global markets really care if our debt is 1.3 trillion or 1.4 trillion. The numbers are beyond belief anyway! It’s growth that we need and in the short run, we just have to take that risk on the deficit. A fresh economic approach is needed for the Labour Party and this could be made by removing Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor and bringing in the former Chancellor Alistair Darling – the man who arguably saved us from a depression.
With the two main parties both failing to take the initiative, another hung parliament looks the most likely outcome of the 2015 General Election. Therefore, the party who can be most confident of being in the next government is the Liberal Democrats, despite a massive drop in popularity due to the broken promise on abolishing tuition fees and no longer being a protest vote. All in all, these council election results are going to be depressing for all three of the main parties. It’s time for all of them to up their game.
Dave Reynolds, Online Comment Editor
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