North Africa: a region on the rocks?

Arthur der Weduwen looks at the Algerian Hostage Crisis and the militant situation in North Africa and asks if the Western world needs to change its approach to this long-overlooked region.

The Algerian hostage crisis kept international news occupied for well over a week. Miscommunications, misinformation, and all-round speculation on the nature of the hostages, their captivity, and their lives were broadcast around the world. One thing that was certain was the identity of the hostage-takers, and their leader, Mokhtar Belmokhtar, whose mission is to drive the infidels out of the North African desert.The motive of the attack was made clear by Belmokhtar: it was a just repercussion for the French invasion of Mali that had started only days earlier. This explanation was valid, but not truthful. Intelligence has now shown that the attack was well-planned, organised, and was due to take place regardless of any foreign intervention in Mali.

What does this say about the current situation in the Sahara? It is well-known that Al-Qaeda affiliated groups have been gaining ground in the North African desert. This has been a gradual trend, increasing over time as militants have been recruited and trained in Mauritania, Niger, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Chad, and Mali. Most incidents have thus far stayed limited to the hostage-taking of European or American individuals, especially French. These have been exchanged for sums of money that have enabled the ‘freedom-fighters’ to recruit more men and acquire more weapons.

All photo credits to Calsidyrose.

What has the international response been to this threat? This is where opinions collide. Groups like the Boko Haram, operating in Nigeria, have been fighting against the Nigerian government for many years without foreign intervention. This pattern has been similarly followed in different countries. Up until this year, the Malian government was fighting the insurgents alone, and Algerian and Libyan governments have done the same for many years.

The gaze of the West is ever East, a saying that is as true today as it was a thousand years ago. The USA and its European allies have largely maintained their eyes on Iraq and Afghanistan, giving weary looks to Iran as well. Meanwhile, the insurgency in North Africa has grown, and the West has grown unaccustomed to the warfare waged in the Saharan desert heat.

This is evident in the wide international disarray that occurred during and following the hostage crisis. Algeria took immediate response. They have experienced hostage crises before, and have a strict policy. No negotiations with ‘terrorists’. This caused outrage with the governments of Britain and Japan, who felt that the Algerian approach was irresponsible and the cause of much collateral damage. I, however, am sympathetic to the Algerian approach. The West is not bothered if Algerians are taken hostage and three dozen Algerians die when the Algerian government chooses not to inform them. However, as soon as Westerners are involved, the West dictates its presence and mandatory consultancy. Regardless of whether the Algerian response was right, it seems that the West needs to reconsider its North African position.

As always, some questions need to be asked. What is going to happen to France’s invasion of Mali? At the moment of writing, French troops have taken the city of Goa and will be encroaching Timbuktu soon. It seems that the superior firepower of the European-AU force will succeed in driving out the Islamists insurgents. For now.

France has pledged to leave once they have ‘liberated’ Mali. The current Malian government does not seem strong enough to contain the insurgent threat, and there is a great possibility that there will be another uprising if the French and the AU force leave. Moreover, the displacement of the Islamist insurgency will simply cause a crisis in another unstable Saharan country – Chad, or Libya, for example. The irrelevance of the artificial borders in the desert, combined with weak governments, will only facilitate this process.

What can thus be done to prevent another crisis like the hostage situation in Algeria, or the brutal regime installed by the Islamists in the North of Mali? It is difficult to say. The Islamist challenge is rooted deep within society, and is not eliminated by a foreign invasion, perhaps even strengthened in the long term. If the West seeks to prevent future crises, they must provide a healthy degree of support to the local governments. Poverty and incompetent regimes breed support for alternative methods of government, so to strengthen the authority of the pro-Western regimes in power would be an effective method of containment. However, this has been done in the past, and has led to regimes like that of Mubarak in Egypt, which has now been overthrown in the Arab Spring.

Therefore, the West needs to ask itself whether it wants more Mubaraks to emerge, or whether they want true democracy in the Sahara – even if this leads to states with an anti-West, extreme-Islamist agenda. It is no easy dilemma.