Has a new silent political force entered the frame? A force powerful enough to change the outcome of the US election?
Over the last thirty years, the Latino population in the United States has almost tripled to over 23 million. By 2050, Latinos are expected to make up one third of the population. This changing demographic can therefore surely be considered a decisive factor in the upcoming US election.
It is believed that some 40 per cent of the Hispanic population are eligible to vote. This small figure is largely due to the numbers who have crossed into the US illegally. Despite this, numerous Democrat supporting Latinos, many of whom are not eligible to vote, have travelled around the states to push for a Democrat victory. Some Republican policies on immigration, such as the idea of “self-deportation”, are unsurprisingly not embraced by the immigrant population.
Romney is, however, mindful of the influence of the Hispanic vote, suggesting that one way undocumented immigrants could gain citizenship would be if they joined the military. Nonetheless despite this, Hispanic voters are more inclined to vote Democrat. Obama’s commitment to remove the threat of deportation of young undocumented immigrants is far more appealing.
Several US states, with high numbers of Hispanic voters, are considered to be critical to the Republican vote. A swing in the states of Florida, Colorado and Nevada could potentially grant Romney a majority.
In 2008 Obama narrowly beat McCain by just over 200,000 in the state of Florida. There are currently 2.1 million eligible Hispanic voters in the state of Florida, which equates to one in six of the Florida electorate. This number is enough to make a huge difference. This figure is one in eight in Colorado, whilst the number of Latino voters in Nevada far exceeds the number by which Obama won in the previous election.
But can the rising Hispanic population shape the US election? In light of the US’ political fragility and challenges it faces economically, Mitt Romney has a huge opportunity to entice those who are discontent with Obama’s handling of the economic crisis.
Perhaps the turning point in the upcoming election will depend on how many of the ever expanding Hispanic electorate will exercise their right to vote.
It is without question, a silent force, with the potential to change the direction of US politics.
Alexander Hunter
exeposedev 